Skip to main content

Estimation of Cross-Immunity Between Drifted Strains of Influenza A/H3N2.

Author
Abstract
:

To determine the cross-immunity between influenza strains, we design a novel statistical method, which uses a theoretical model and clinical data on attack rates and vaccine efficacy among school children for two seasons after the 1968 A/H3N2 influenza pandemic. This model incorporates the distribution of susceptibility and the dependence of cross-immunity on the antigenic distance of drifted strains. We find that the cross-immunity between an influenza strain and the mutant that causes the next epidemic is 88%. Our method also gives estimates of the vaccine protection against the vaccinating strain, and the basic reproduction number of the 1968 pandemic influenza.

Year of Publication
:
2018
Journal
:
Bulletin of mathematical biology
Date Published
:
2018
ISSN Number
:
0092-8240
DOI
:
10.1007/s11538-018-0395-5
Short Title
:
Bull Math Biol
Download citation