Monte Carlo simulation analysis was used to compare the cost of managing recurrent ovarian cancer patients with and without the use of positron emission tomography (PET) scanning. Assumptions in the management pathway were: (1) a positive PET scan led to either laparoscopy or laparotomy, followed by chemotherapy (true positive PET) or follow-up (false positive PET); (2) a negative PET scan resulted in continued follow-up (true negative PET) or laparotomy (false negative PET); and, (3) a laparotomy led to chemotherapy or follow-up. In this simulation, sensitivity and specificity of FDG PET for recurrent ovarian cancer varied from 72-91% (mean 83%) and 69-95% (mean 85%), respectively, as defined by the ROC curve. Using a prevalence rate of 30% for recurrent ovarian cancer, the mean PET false negative rate was 5%. Thus, when using PET to manage the diagnostic evaluation, the number of unnecessary laparotomies was reduced from 70% to 5%, with 35% of patients undergoing laparoscopy for recurrent disease instead of laparotomy. If laparotomy is used in place of laparoscopy, unnecessary surgery can be avoided in 30% of patients. Costs for procedures were based both on hospital charges, and Medicare reimbursement rates. Cost savings per patient ranged from $1,941 to $11,766, assuming that follow-up evaluation was similar for both groups. Estimated cost savings were due to the need for fewer surgical procedures when using PET in the diagnostic evaluation, the reimbursement rate scheme employed, and whether laparotomy or laparoscopy was used in the management algorithm for PET positive patients. In conclusion, FDG PET can reduce unnecessary invasive staging procedures and save health care costs when used appropriately in the management of patients with recurrent ovarian cancer.

Clinical positron imaging : official journal of the Institute for Clinical P.E.T

2

1095-0397

10.1016/s1095-0397(99)00013-8